Respondents to ASA’s monthly sales report survey reported a median sales increase of 9% for November 2022 vs. 2021.
Industry Insights, which produces the ASA monthly sales report for ASA distributor members, says that given the current high inflationary environment, the year over-year comparisons should continue to be viewed with caution. For instance, on a month-to-month basis, respondents reported a decrease in sales of -7% for November 2022 vs. October 2022.
Nonetheless, it is encouraging that half of the respondents still reported TTM sales growth between 12.9% to 23.7%. Inventory rose 19% for November 2022 vs. November 2021.
“While November reported solid growth (9%), it continued a three-month trend of slowing growth. It is the first month since February 2021 that the median year-over-year monthly sales growth was less than 10%,” Industry Insights Senior Vice President Greg Manns said. “While some continue to experience continued solid sales growth, there are signs of more respondents starting to see the onset of a slowing economy. Inflationary pressures are continuing to squeeze gross margins and bottom-line net profits as we wrap up 2022.”
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
The "Real" GDP figure for the third quarter 2022 was revised upward from 2.6% to 2.9%. Total wholesale sales for October grew 12% year-over year, while inventories grew 22% vs. the prior year. The Department of Commerce recently began reporting "Real" wholesale sales to provide a more accurate picture of inflation adjusted growth. From March through October, "real" wholesale growth has ranged between 1.3% to 4.0%. Housing permits and starts declined in November and remain well below their 2021 levels.
What ASA distributor members are saying:
Some comments from ASA member distributors that participated in the monthly sales report:
- “Business remains much stronger than anticipated. We have good back log and are looking for a good start to 2023.”
- “Sales remain very strong, but November was the first month this year where our booked orders for the month were lower than the same month in 2021.”
To access the full ASA monthly sales report and to access archived reports, log into your MyASA account at www.asa.net/myasa.
